Friday, September 21, 2012

NFL football picks and college football betting?

How to Win at Sports Betting

from wikiHow - The How to Manual That You Can Edit
How’s your season going? Making the big bucks? Or do you need some sound sports betting advice so you can finally start seeing profits and stop making the bookies rich. If it’s the latter, read on…

Steps

  1. Know your math. The line-makers do, and they make profits every season. You aren’t going to come out ahead laying -110 for 100 on a coin flip, and most sporting events are just that. In places where they don't represent likelihoods in terms of odds (eg 5 to 1, meaning you can win $5 for every dollar you put in), they will just do it in terms of money multipliers. It essentially means the same thing. If you don't know how to find the edge, use reliable and proven sports handicapping services such as BettingResource.com.
  2. Know your sport. This is MUCH less important than step number 1, but it helps. The thing to concentrate on is the "X-factor" of a sport; that is, what degree of random craziness is likely to affect the outcome of any given game.
  3. Handicap the situation, not the game. This is what separates winners from losers. The public is out there betting on the best-looking teams and who should beat who based on past wins and losses – and they are losers. Look for undervalued teams based on the situation. For example, a good team playing their homecoming game against a hated rival who is a favorite over them on the road. In this spot you want the home team underdog because you know they are coming to play.
  4. Bet within your bankroll. This is what kills most players. Always bet the same percentage of your set playing bankroll on every game (somewhere between 2% and 6%) no matter how much you think you like the bet. Patience and discipline is very important if you want to succeed in sports betting. If you want to treat sports betting as an investment and win long term, it is highly recommended that you read the articles on Money Management and Patiance/Discipline

Tips

  • Remember that injuries and weather conditions have already been factored into the line and the odds. Don’t pay attention to that stuff; stick with handicapping the situation. Yet, if you are betting on a minor sport in your country (eg. You are in USA betting on Australian Rules Football), the impact of a major trade may be very important to both team, but since Americans may not know the full situations, the lines can be stuffed up.
  • If the lines are just pushed out, the odds of $1.87 do exist. Take advantage of them if you know the potential of how the balance will tip (I.e. You know what will become more likely to occur) later in the day. Take that line.
  • The public loves favorites and they are losers. Therefore, bet mostly underdogs.
  • There are contrasting theories about betting on multiple events. If you are going by the expected winnings approach (i.e. you want to win $100), you can either put the bare minimum ($5 in New Zealand TAB), then stack the 8-lines with 8 different head-to-heads so the odds would be $20.00. You lose less money, but since you have to worry about 8 events, if one event is not as you guessed (or if you have an event being cancelled), you lose the $5.
  • On the other end, you can push more money in if you have enough money to push (like $20), then you can just stack less lines that add up to an odds of $5 to get $100. You will lose more money if one event doesn't come your way, but if you are betting events happening throughout the weekend (eg. NFL with NBA), this is a safer call.
  • You can also use multiple single slips and adding money. You can never win more money than if all was pushed in a multi-slip, but it safeguards you if one line is screwed, you can still win money on the ones you hit.
  • In New Zealand, due to time zone differences, it is possible to do a rolling bet if you are somewhat cash-strapped. The way it works is that if there is an NBA playoff game that closes at 12:35pm (NZT), and you know that the result will come at around 4pm,do a points-total bet, then if you win that, take some of the winnings home, then continue with the later games like a Rugby League match that happens at night. This kind of betting would work even better for weekend bets.
  • If you don't have the time to do all the home work, use a sports handicapping service. But be very careful because 99% of the services lose money. If you see any service touting game of the year, game of the month, game of the day or unreal winning percentage, they are usually losing service, in fact they more of marketers than sports handicappers. Stick to proven services with long track record like Betting Resource that treats sports betting as a long term investment rather than gambling.

Warnings

  • Addictive gambling is a serious problem! If you have this problem you need to stop all forms of gambling.
  • Only bet on sports if it is legal where you live and never use an illegal bookie.
  • Beware of long streaks. The odds for the winning team will continue to drop towards $1, but the day when the streak snaps, it could spell trouble. For example: When Houston was winning 22 games in a row and going for 23, the odds are tipping towards $1.00 on head-to head. But then when the streak was snapped... That is when the combined scores, head-starts and even really obscure side-bets like "Who will score the most points" could be a possible option.
  • Never be too confident if you can string together a winning streak (in terms of money). Massive upsets always happen.
  • Try not to do a multi on uncertain events. By that I mean games that are affected by weather (eg. tennis, cricket). If the match is abandoned or postponed, you can get a full refund when a single slip is done, but not if you have lost a line, got everything else. You may get money for the lines you have won thus far if all the rest are good calls, and refund the line that is abandoned, but check carefully. One great example is Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens in the NFL. That match was postponed due to Hurricane Ike, and postponed to November.
  • Strangely, relocated teams do well in alternative home games, too. New Orleans Hornets did well in Oklahoma City, though the same cannot be said for New Orleans Saints. Tread with caution if Houston Texans are playing home games elsewhere in 2008.
  • Watching the games you have made a call on can be very stressful, especially when a game is long, or when you are wanting comeback wins or comeback losses.

Related wikiHows

Article provided by wikiHow, a wiki how-to manual. Please edit this article and find author credits at the original wikiHow article on How to Win at Sports Betting. All content on wikiHow can be shared under a Creative Commons license.

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